United States: The Republican Party’s Identity Crisis and the 2024 Election
The Republican Party rightward shift since the Trump presidency reflects a continuation of an anti-government and pro-individualist stance that started 40 years ago. The upcoming presidential election
On their 15th ballot cast, House Republicans were finally able to elect Kevin McCarthy as the Speaker of the House of Representatives with a razor thin majority of 50.5%. The election, which is generally considered a formality, lasted from the 3rd to the 7th of January 2023 showcasing that divisions within the GOP were serious enough that McCarthy had to provide concessions to representatives on the far right. While a slew of memorable moments occurred during the process, including a tussle between representatives, there’s one event which encapsulates the current state of the Republican party. On the 7th ballot, Florida representative Matt Gaetz voted for Donald Trump, even though the former president had endorsed McCarthy.
While senseless in practice, Gaetz’s vote is emblematic of the rightward shift that the GOP has taken since Trump left office. The vote highlights a support for what the 45th president represents amongst those on the far-right who consider themselves at odds against the establishment “swamp”. To this faction of the party, McCarthy is the avatar of the Republican “lobby core” and, in order to differentiate themselves, they’ve adopted an “outsider” veneer. However, this trend didn’t start with the former president and those who rode the Trump train into office but is instead the natural evolution of the party.
I’m from the government and I’m (not) here to help.
The adoption of an anti-government and pro-individualist doctrine, that has come to define the increasingly illiberal Republican block, has its roots in the 1980’s with the Reagan revolution. American historian and professor at Boston College Heather Cox Richardson highlights how the so-called Movements Conservatives of this period appropriated the mythos of the individualistic cowboy who detests government intervention, which they labeled as “socialism”, and proposed an economic system based on fewer taxes along with less regulations. Furthermore, evangelicals, who had previously shunned politics, were brought into the fray in order to provide necessary votes. With them came a rejection of secularist politics and an opposition to significant Supreme Court decisions, such as Roe v. Wade. The stage was now set.
These sentiments would all but snowball in the subsequent years. Republicans would continue to slash taxes, increase military spending while reducing social programs, and utilized conservative media to vilify Democrats with conspiracy theories. Since this mindset only makes sense with an outsider at the helm, a true anti-government individualist, it was only natural that someone like Trump would become the face of the party. With his bombastic rhetoric, additional military spending, and his quite literal attack on the government itself, Trumps presidency wasn’t a corruption of the Republican party of Regan but its natural progression. And finally, even without the presidency, the party would catch their white whale. On the 24th of June 2022 Roe v. Wade was overturned; Movement Conservatives had reached a sort of apotheosis.
However, much to the surprise of pollsters, during the 2022 midterms Republicans failed to trounce the ruling Democrats. This outcome was particularly shocking due to high inflation at the time and Bidens low popularity but, when considering the big picture, one finds that this is the results of the past 40 years of Movement Conservative politics. Republican economic policies haven’t been popular since the 1990s and with their battles on social issues aren’t receiving the same results that they had in the past, the party is now stuck with trying to change its appearance. This leads us to the current state of the party.
Two sides of the same coin?
As we addressed earlier, the post-Trump Republican party continued to slide towards the right, but it was only after this recent round of midterms that a true rebellion within the party began to materialize. While the House Speaker election was more memorable, within the Senate there was an attack from the right flank on Mitch McConnell’s leadership. While the revolt was put down by a margin of 37-10, it’s important to recognize that the leader of the rightists was Tim Scott who’s currently the face of the anti-Social Security and Medicare faction, something that Richardson highlights is another Reaganian ideal.
Thus, the party is characterized by a contest between those that are through with half measures, and want the party to continue its metamorphosis, against the old guard concerned with rebranding after the abysmal performance during the midterms. However, at its core, the Republicans are driving down the same road with one following the speed limit while the latter has its foot on the gas. Polls showcase how more than half of the party believe the nation ought to be strictly Christian and 74% think the Federal Government has too much power. The issue at hand is how to frame these ideals to the public at large.
With the upcoming presidential elections, we can begin to see this struggle take shape. Trump, with his classic America first rhetoric, has already received endorsements from those on parties right, such as Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Greene and Paul Gosar, and represents the all gas no breaks populist path. So far Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who at this time has yet to run, seemingly represents an alternative to the bombastic Trumpism but, we can already observe the fight for the face party with someone who has already announced their candidacy.
Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, who announced her bid on the 15th of February, sought from the start to balance her Washington outsider status, by focusing on her work as the Governor of South Carolina, while boasting about her foreign policy work in an attempt to place a moderate veneer on what is essentially a continuation of Movement Conservatism. In fact, we see references to social politics in her ads, anti-status quo rhetoric during interviews, and associating herself with rightist figures. Thus, the Republican party, as it heads into the 2024 election, is divided on appearances. As it stands now, the Trump block is in the lead but there’s still time to change.